The Advanced Astro Indicator is a more advanced version of the Bradley Siderograph. However, unlike the Bradley Siderograph, this indicator is customized for each security with weights based on the actual historical correlation between the security and each planetary aspect and declination.
Evolution of Astro Analysis
- In 1948 Donald Bradley introduced the world to the Bradley Siderograph in his book, “Stock Market Prediction.”
- In 2014 a new Bradley Bars Dashboard was introduced that identifies Turn Dates with a greater degree of precision.
- Now a more Advanced Astro Indicator is being introduced that contains a custom indicator for each security based on its past correlation with historical planetary aspects and declinations.
Donald Bradley's book "Stock Market Prediction" introduced visionary concepts including the original formula behind the Bradley Siderograph. Since then more than half a century has passed and technology has advanced significantly. However, we are still using the same weights to generate the same old Bradley Siderograph. Can we build upon Donald Bradley's legacy with a more Advanced Astro Indicator? I know we can! Aside from some differentiation in weights between the "Middle Terms" and "Long Terms," the Bradley Siderograph assigns the same weights to all planetary aspects. It also assigns weights to the declinations of only two planets while ignoring the declinations of the others. This caused me to consider how the weights in the Bradley Siderograph could be improved with our modern technology today.
Custom Indicator for Each Security
In recent years, global stock markets have demonstrated an increasing amount of correlation with each other. However, prices for individual stocks, stock indices, commodities, and FOREX currency pairs vary significantly from one another. For example, over the last year Oil prices were down significantly and the price of shares of Facebook are up significantly. Therefore, an accurate indicator for Oil would have generally been trending downward over the last year, and an accurate indicator for Facebook would have generally been trending upward over the last year. Therefore, does it really make sense to use the exact same indicator for all securities? The Advanced Astro Indicator was developed with the idea that a unique indicator custom tailored to a particular security could be more accurate than the standard “one-size-fits-all” approach that has been used previously. I leveraged the classical Bradley Siderograph and the Solver tool in Microsoft Excel to develop a new Advanced Astro Indicator, and the results were nothing short of amazing. The correlation of this new Advanced Astro Indicator and the S&P 500 for 2015 was 43%. This new tool indicates that we could see some weakness in the S&P 500 between now (i.e., early November 2015) and the end of the year.
Evolution of Astro Analysis
How is the Advanced Astro Indicator Calcuated?
- Development of a Calculation Engine in Excel -- Donald Bradley may have been using pen and paper (or possibly a typewriter) to perform his work. This would have made it difficult if not impossible to perform the tremendous number of calculations needed to determine which planetary aspects and declinations have historically had the largest correlation with the S&P 500. However, with modern technology today I was able to run my 12-core Intel CPU to perform the 19.6 million underlying calculations necessary to set up a Calculation Engine in Excel. It took weeks to perform these calculations with my CPU at 100%, but now the hard work is done.
- Determined Weights for Each Planetary Aspect and Declination Leveraging Historical Correlations -- After developing the Calculation Engine, I used Microsoft Excel to calculate the correlation between the S&P 500 and each one of the 116 combinations of planetary aspects and declinations individually. Each of these calculations took anywhere from 30 seconds to a few minutes, which was much easier work than the development of the Calculation Engine. Given that I wanted to see what this indicator predicted for 2015, I only used data through the end of 2014 (i.e., for the S&P 500 I used data from 1/3/1950 through 12/31/2014). This was important update because it resulted in weights for each planetary aspect and declination based on actual historical correlations with the S&P 500 as compared to arbitrarily assigning weights of "1" and "5" as is used in the classic Bradley Siderograph formula. I also repeated this work for other securities to determine the unique weights that would work best for those additional securities.
- Added Aspects to the North Node -- The new indicator also includes aspects with the moon's North Node, which were excluded from the original Bradley Siderograph.
During the creation of the Advanced Astro Indicator I came across three planetary aspects that have historically had an extremely strong correlation with the S&P 500. The percent figures below correspond solely to the correlation between the planetary aspect itself and the S&P 500. For example, the occurrence of conjunctions between Venus and Mars have historically been associated with a positive correlation of 10.4% with the S&P 500, whereas conjunctions between Mars and Saturn have historically had a significant negative correlation with the S&P 500 of -7.34%. This matches up with what Donald Bradley wrote in his book "Solar and Lunar Returns," which stated that " there is no more terrible, destructive combination than Mars-Saturn."
Strongest Positive Aspects for the S&P 500 (1/3/1950 - 12/31/2014)
- Conjunction of Venus and Mars (10.4%)
- Trine between Mars and Saturn (9.22%)
Strongest Negative Aspect (1/3/1950 - 12/31/2014)
- Conjunction between Mars and Saturn (-7.34%)
Overview of the Rate of Change Included in the Advanced Astro Dashboard
Calculation of Weights
The table below contains the correlation between the S&P 500 from 1/3/1950 through 12/31/2014 and each planetary aspect and declination. For example, a conjunction of Venus and Mars has typically been associated with relative strength in the S&P 500 given the positive 10.4% weight. In contrast, conjunctions between Mars and Saturn have typically been associated with relative weakness in the S&P 500, which is reflected in its weight of -7.3%.
Correlations for 2015
I was interested in testing out this new tool to see how it performed for the most recent year (i.e., 2015). Therefore, I excluded all data from 2015 when I calculated the weights above so that the projection for 2015 would be "out of sample" and more statistically valid. The resulting indicator is nothing short of amazing for the vast majority of the securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. However, this correlation was much higher than I expected, and I'm excited to see how it performs in 2016. Click here to learn more about this correlation analysis.
Example: Advanced Astro Indicator for the AEX (Amsterdam) for 2015
See below for an example of the Advanced Astro Indicator.
Example: Historical Correlation for the AEX (Amsterdam)
How to Customize Weights for the Advanced Astro Indicator
The video below provides an overview of how you can choose which weights you would like to use for the Advanced Astro Indicator. You can customize which weights you would like to use for the Advanced Astro Indicator by changing the value in the drop-down box below where it says "Advanced Astro" in the Advanced Astro Dashboard.
Click here to download a PDF file that shows which weights are included for each option that is available.
The Advanced Astro Dashboard makes it easy to compare the price trend of a particular security to the custom Advanced Astro Indicator for that particular security. This new Dashboard is now updated with the following additional enhancements:
- Additional Customizations -- For the Advanced Astro Indicator, you can choose to use all of the weights or a custom sub-set of the weights
- Much Faster Computation Time -- There is now a separate Excel file for each security, so it typically takes only a few seconds for the graph to update as compared to 20-30 seconds previously
- Easier Data Update -- For most securities you can choose to either update the data automatically with Quandl or manually with "copy and paste."
- New Planetary Aspects Tab -- Allows you to see when planetary aspects are taking place and what the security's historical correlation has been with each aspect.
- New Historical Weights Tab -- Shows you a security's past historical correlation with each planetary aspect and declinations.