Historical Astro Correlation Analysis


This page goes over the results of an analysis of the historical correlation between 60 of the most widely traded securities and indices with several financial astrology indicators.

 

The Bradley Siderograph and the Advanced Astro Indicator

In the 1940s Donald Bradley released a formula for the Bradley Siderograph in his book Stock Market Prediction.  This indicator is intended to reflect the overall level of market psychology, which could correspond to changes in investors’ attitudes toward investments (e.g., bullish vs. bearish sentiment).  The weights for the planetary aspects in the Bradley Siderograph are largely based on the standard interpretation of various planetary aspects (e.g., trine aspects are “good” and square aspects are “bad”).  There is only one Bradley Siderograph indicator, which is typically used for all securities (i.e., this indicator is not customized to individual securities).

The weights for the new Advanced Astro Indicator are customized to the historical correlation between a particular security and the available set of planetary aspects and declinations.  Therefore, there is a unique Advanced Astro Indicator for each security.

For example, historically the S&P 500 has been at a relatively low point when a conjunction (0°) between Mars and Saturn has taken place.  Therefore, the Advanced Astro Indicator for the S&P 500 would decrease when this particular aspect takes place in the future.

In contrast, historically the S&P 500 has been at a relatively high point when Mars and Saturn had a trine aspect (120°) with each other.  Therefore, the Advanced Astro Indicator for the S&P 500 would increase upon the occurrence of this aspect.  See below for an example of what the Advanced Astro Indicator looks like for the S&P 500.

 

Advanced Astro Indicator for the S&P 500

 

Example of Weights for the Advanced Astro Indicator

The table below shows the historical correlation between each planetary aspect and declination and the S&P 500.  For example, the first planetary aspect in the table below, which is a conjunction between Mercury and Pluto), has typically taken place when the S&P was at a relatively low point.  This is reflected in the value of -0.7% in red.  In contrast, the occurrence of a trine aspect between these two planets has tended to take place when the S&P 500 was at a relatively high point (i.e., see the value of 2.0% in green).

Therefore, the Advanced Astro Indicator goes up if there is a disproportionately large amount of positive aspects taking place, and it goes down if a disproportionately large amount of negative aspects are taking place.  Given that different securities have different price histories, there is a unique Advanced Astro Indicator that is customized to each security.

All of the Advanced Astro Weights for the S&P 500

 

 

Historical Correlation Analysis

It is possible that for a particular security not all of the weights in the table above are relevant.  For example, you might want to see what the Advanced Astro Indicator would look like if weights for planetary aspects with the Moon’s North Node are excluded.  Alternatively, you might want to see what the indicator would look like if declinations are excluded.  Therefore, the latest version of the Advanced Astro Dashboard allows you to chose among 15 different weight customizations for the Advanced Astro Indicator.  How can you determine which of these 15 customizations you would like to see graphed?  The results of the historical correlation analysis below can help you answer this question.

I compared the price history of 60 securities for 2015 (i.e., January 1, 2015 through December 31, 2015) to each of the indicators available in the Advanced Astro Dashboard.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but these correlation results for 2015 astonished me.

Note the especially strong correlations using weights for the Advanced Astro Indicator with only Long Terms and no Opposite Weights (“AA LT & No Opp”).  This customization is based only on the weights for only the “Long Terms” planets with each other (i.e., Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune and Pluto).  Also, it excludes any negative weights for typically positive aspects (e.g., trine aspects) and positive weights for typically negative aspects (e.g., square aspects).

Historical Correlation Analysis for 2015 - All 60 Securities

 

Graph of Mean Median and Percent Positive

 

 

Here are the key items I took away from this analysis:

  • 14 of the 15 indicators had an average (i.e., “mean”) correlation that was positive.  As a point of reference, if these indicators were not at all predictive, we would expect to see approximately half the correlations as negatives and half as positives (i.e., approximately 7 negative and 7 positive),
  • All of the indicators had a positive median correlation with the securities (i.e., if we were to rank all of the securities from highest to lowest correlation, the two in the middle would have a positive correlation),
  • All of  the indicators had a positive correlation for at least half of the securities, and many of the indicators had a correlation well above 50%.  If these indicators were not at all predictive we would have expected to see an average correlation of only approximately 50%.

Expected vs. Actual Values

 

Historical Correlations for the 60 Securities

The screen shot below contains the detailed results of the correlation analysis with the 60 securities listed alphabetically.

 

Historical Correlations for 60 Securities Small

 

The screen shot below ranks the securities and indicators in order based on their correlations (i.e., the securities and indicators with the highest correlations are at the top left part of the table.

 

Ranking of Highest Correlation Indicators and Securities Small

See below for a link to download the Excel version of this historical correlation analysis.  This file contains the raw underlying security price data as well as the raw data for the indicators for 2015.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/8bz8rio0nkcn7ym/_Historical%20Correlation%20Analysis.xlsx?dl=1

 

Limitations of This Analysis

It is beneficial to use as much data as possible in developing the Advanced Astro Indicator.  However, if we used all of the available data in calculating the indicator (i.e., up to the present day), there would be no future projection period to determine how well the indicator performs “out of sample” in real life.  The Advanced Astro Indicator is based on all of the available historical data I was able to locate through the end of 2014.  Given that data through 2014 was used in developing the indicator, only periods after 2014 would be relevant in assessing how well the indicator performs.  Therefore, this analysis was based on the Advance Astro Indicator’s performance in 2015.  If this analysis included more years (e.g., 2015-2020) it would obviously be more robust.  Also, please note that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

 

Summary

I am excited about this new indicator, and I look forward to seeing how well it performs going forward.  Thanks for taking the time to learn more about this historical correlation analysis.  If you would like to learn more, including how the Advanced Astro Dashboard works, I encourage you to click the link below.

 

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