fade-leftfade-rightAlternative Bradley Siderograph Turn Dates

In his book "Stock Market Prediction," Donald Bradley provided a formula for calculating the Bradley Siderograph.

However, rather than focusing on one very specific formula, Donald Bradley emphasized that the specific factors to be incorporated should be decided "depending upon choice after experimentation."

For example, his formula includes an "adopted multiplier" that multiplies the Long Terms and Declinations by "3, 4, or 5 times."

This page contains an analysis of which set of weights appears to work the best for the S&P 500 based on actual historical correlations over six separate time periods.

Alternative Bradley Siderograph for the S&P 500

If you click on one of the time periods below (e.g., "180 Days"), an image will pop up that contains a table with the historical correlation between the S&P 500 and the various versions of the Bradley Siderograph for the time period you selected.  The set of weights with the highest correlation for each time period is highlighted in yellow.

The table below illustrates the average historical correlation over the 6 recent time periods listed above for the S&P 500 and

  • The Bradley Siderograph using various possible weights 
  • Middle Terms only,
  • Long Terms only, and
  • Declinations only.

The cell toward the bottom-right side of the table highlighted in yellow (i.e., "-20%") represents the correlation between the S&P 500 and the formula used for the latest graphs available for the Bradley Siderograph on this site:

Bradley Siderograph = 1*(Middle Terms) + 5*(Declination of Mercury and Venus) + 5*(Long Terms)

Based on the results in the table above, in recent years the Long Terms have had an especially high correlation with the S&P 500.  The versions of the Bradley Siderograph formula that set lower weights (or zero weight) for Declinations and higher weights for the Long Terms tended to have a higher correlation.  However, it's important to note that "correlation is not causation" (i.e., one does not necessarily cause the other).

In the table above, the set of weights that had the highest correlation (i.e., 55%) set the weights for the Middle Terms to 1X, the Long Terms to 5X, and the Declinations to zero.

Bradley Siderograph = 1*(Middle Terms) + 5*(Long Terms) + 0*(Declinations)

See below for a graph of the S&P 500 and this set of weights over various time periods.

Alternative Turn Dates for Other Securities

Alternative Bradley Siderograph for WTI Crude Oil

If you click on one of the time periods below (e.g., "180 Days"), an image will pop up that contains a table with the historical correlation between WTI Crude Oil and the various versions of the Bradley Siderograph for the time period you selected.  The set of weights with the highest correlation for each time period is highlighted in yellow.