Bradley Siderograph 2015 Turn Dates – S&P 500 55


See below for the 2015 Bradley Siderograph Turn Dates, which are in green.  The Turn Dates for the three elements that compose the Bradley Siderograph are also listed below (i.e., for the Middle Terms, Long Terms, and Declinations).  See this introductory video for an additional explanation if you are new to the Bradley Siderograph indicator.

Overall the Bradley Turn Dates performed exceptionally well for the S&P 500 in 2015 with two of the most effective dates being the May 24 Middle Terms Turn Date (which was 1 day off from the high in the S&P 500 for the year) and the August 27 Long Terms Turn Date (which corresponded with the S&P 500’s largest decline of the year).

There are no significant Bradley Turn Dates between now and the end of 2015, but the new Advanced Astro Indicator is calling for a decline in the S&P 500 between now and the end of the year.

S&P 500 Turn Dates for 2010-2020

 

2015 Bradley Bars Turn Dates for the S&P 500 (Bradley Siderograph)

  • May 10 (31/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)
  • May 25 (31/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)
  • June 8 (28/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)
  • September 23 (32/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)
  • October 17 (48/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)

2015 S&P 500 Bradley Siderograph Turn Dates (2015-11-23)

 

 

Link-to-Classic-Version-Donald-Bradley-Siderograph-2015

2015 Bradley Bars Turn Dates for the S&P 500 (Long Terms)

  • April 22 (53/100 Long Terms Power)
  • August 27 (100/100 Long Terms Power)

2015 S&P 500 Long Terms Turn Dates (2015-11-23)

 

 

2015 Bradley Bars Turn Dates for the S&P 500 (Middle Terms)

  • February 1 (43/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • March 13 (35/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • April 3 (35/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • May 24 (53/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • July 1 (40/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • July 16 (40/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • August 15 (43/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • October 9 (52/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • November 10 (37/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • November 25 (37/100 Middle Terms Power)

2015 S&P 500 Middle Terms Turn Dates (2015-11-23)

 

 

2015 Bradley Bars Turn Dates for the S&P 500 (Declinations)

  • May 10 (100/100 Declinations Power)
  • September 17 (38/100 Declinations Power)
  • October 10 (49/100 Declinations Power)

2015 S&P 500 Declinations Turn Dates (2015-11-23)

 

Analysis of “Combined” Turn Dates

  • May 24-25 – There were significant turns in the Middle Terms and the Bradley Siderograph back to back.  These back-to-back Turn Dates corresponded to the high in the S&P 500 for the year within 1 day.
  • August 27-28 – On these two days there was a turn in the Long Terms (100/100 Power) and the Middle Terms (14/100 Power).  These Turn Dates took place within days of the largest decline in the S&P 500 for the year.

 

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Click here to check out the new Advanced Astro Indicator which is a much more advanced version of the Bradley Siderograph

 

S&P 500 – 2015 Bradley Siderograph Turn Dates (Standard Version)

See below for the Bradley Turn Dates for the Bradley Siderograph and the three elements that make up the Bradley Siderograph, including the Long Terms, Middle Terms, and Declinations.

  • February 1 (43/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • March 13 (35/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • April 3 (35/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • April 22 (53/100 Long Terms Power)
  • May 10 (31/100 Bradley Siderograph Power and 100/100 Declinations Power)
  • May 24 (53/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • May 25 (31/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)
  • June 8 (28/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)
  • July 1 (40/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • July 16 (40/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • August 15 (43/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • August 27 (100/100 Long Terms Power)
  • September 17 (38/100 Declinations Power)
  • September 23 (32/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)
  • October 9 (52/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • October 10 (49/100 Declinations Power)
  • October 17 (48/100 Bradley Siderograph Power)
  • November 10 (37/100 Middle Terms Power)
  • November 25 (37/100 Middle Terms Power)

2015 S&P 500 Turn Dates (2015-11-23)

 

S&P 500 Turn Dates for 2010-2020

 

 

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55 thoughts on “Bradley Siderograph 2015 Turn Dates – S&P 500

  • bebe rebozo

    As November 10/25 comes into focus all major averages are approaching their all time highs ( except for the RUT ). A reversal in November would comes as a shock, as many are seasonally leaning towards the buy side. I’m not suggesting any one front run the market here. However this may not be the time to put new money on the long side.

  • bozo

    Looks like OCT 17 is the last chance for the year to have some meaningful turning point . Looking at the weekly chart of SP 500 it looks quite bullish . Does anyone see any technical reason why we would sell off from here ? The only line I see is a trendline connecting July 20 and Aug 18 tops ; we might hit it on Monday ten points away. Also we are approaching the 20 week moving average .So maybe we get a pullback but not a significant one .

    • Peppinger

      bearish arguments (S&P500):
      1. the high from 16th Oct (2033) is under the low from 7th July (2044);
      2. the structure since the low on 24th Aug. is a perfect a-b-c pattern (153-148-161 points)
      3. if the above a-b-c pattern is a “B”, and the low of 24th Aug. was the end of an “A”, then B is 0,622 x A!!
      (the perfect expectation for an B is between 61,8 and 66 %!!
      4. Watch the last McClellan oscillator interpretation:
      http://www.mcoscillator.com
      5. 2015 the bradleysiderograph-turningpoints worked very well so far!
      The cluster on 9th and 10th Oct. marked a nice top – and now the bradley on 17th is the highest price since 2 month!

      I think, propabilities are very high for a Top in the stockmarkets!!
      No Top looks bearish – this would be too easy – everybody and every technical system will turn bearish not before going under the low from 24th Aug (1867)!

      Thats the advantage of astrology!!

      I go short with a tight stop!

      • bozo

        You definitely have some valid points. From Elliott Wave perspective though I have to strongly disagree that we have made a perfect a-b-c . Technically it doesn’t fit as a-b-c at all because the subdivisions are not right . If anything it is a more complex sideways correction that will continue for much longer . But yes we could correct from here. But without a new low in the market is what I am thinking .
        Personally , I haven’t found the 2015 turn points to be very good . They have been off by about a week and not resulted in significant movement. That is the way I see it .

  • Peppinger

    The only thing we know is, that the propabilities for a market turn are very high now! Like always there exist so many different scenarios:

    1. we will get a short-term-correction in a super-bull-market (Martin Armstrong: bonds will crash and stocks go up in a blow-off).
    2. we will get a test of the last lows via flashcrash – (maybe a false break to the downside) – then a rally to new a.t.h.!
    3. now we have a Top for a very long time – an Elliott-A-B-C-correction is finished, markets are mostly under MA200 – and we are still in a very big correction of the rise since March 2009!
    4. or no turn will happen now – maybe there are some hidden forces to the upside we do not know!

    What to do?
    Go short with a tight stop and you will see what happens!

  • bozo

    October 9-10 is supposed to have potential to be powerful but I don’t see any possible top or bottom in the market during that time . Bottom definitely no . Only if we manage to get above 2020 in S&P 500 , that could be a top . But 2020 seems hard to reach . Anyone with ideas ?

    • bozo

      We are now pretty close to make a high , only 25 points away . So it is conceivable we make it by Monday .
      Just selling into it is tough . As Daily and Weekly chart looks bullish to me now .

  • bebe rebozo

    As a purely speculative play, i am looking at the possibility that the Sept. 17 turn will mark a low. The S&P is currently north of 1950. We’ll See !

  • bebe rebozo

    Most stocks peaked in the May time frame. The August 27-28 turn may well have marked a major low in $WTIC and gold stocks as measured by the GDX. Very impressive.

  • Peppinger

    “shake it baby”!
    It is still all open!!
    Either the market had its low on Monday and the impressive rally was the first upleg of a very big bullmove –
    or the rally to the upside was just a “dead-cat-bounce” in an already big bear-market!
    The cluster 27./28. Aug. 100/100 longterm you can interpret as a bottom on Monday or as a Top now!!
    Fullmoon on 29th, Aug can mark a turning point also!
    Be careful!!

  • Kevin

    Well the 100 power rating on Long Terms for August 27, 2015 surely has manifested as of this writing. I check a daily chart for Manhattan NY every trading day for the open at 9:30. The Sun squared Saturn last Friday (which is itself semi-square Pluto). The Sun is also exactly Conjunct Jupiter on Tues if I recall correctly. At 9;30 AM on Monday of this week found Uranus exactly on the Descendant. Libra is on the Ascendant ruled by Venus (retrograde since the 15th August) and soon conjunct with Mars.

    Not even TRYING to tell anyone I foresaw what was to come however when I see this many sensitive points hit by heavy planets and aspects and combustion again I will proceed with way more caution. The question is as the Ascendant and Solar positions transit away from these positions (both about a degree a day) will we resume our sideways action or something new? What say my fellow Bradley followers?

    • bozo

      “Well the 100 power rating on Long Terms for August 27, 2015 surely has manifested as of this writing”

      Can you clarify ? You talking about a bottom ? We won’t know until we make a new high won’t we ?

      • Kevin

        Bozo I am no expert at Bradley graph interpretation but the long terms had August 27 at 100/100. As I understand Bradley’s methodology this would indicate a preponderance of “hard” aspects (some of which I write about above) that could indicate a higher level of stress or anxiousness that can play out as a change or acceleration of market sentiment. Though there are levels previously reached in 2015 at this level on the graph of hard aspects they did not reach the “power level” of Aug 27. The fact that the market has changed (possibly dramatically) I think is a fair observation. A bottom? I don’t think so. Volatility? Oh hell yeah.

  • Peppinger

    Hi everybody!
    43/100 middle terms power from 15th Aug followed an acceleration to the downside!
    Now in the week from 100/100 long term (27th Aug.) I am looking for a bottom – maybe it was ready today on 24th intraday, or we will get a lower low at the end of the week!
    Good luck!

    • bozo

      Hard to believe we will get a massive turn around on the speculative August 27/28 turn window ( with 100/100 long terms ) .
      Maybe just a bounce . Anybody have any comment ? I just don’t believe a meaningful bottom is coming here .

  • Peppinger

    Hi, Matt!

    Whow – what a nice Top!
    16.July: 40/100 middle term Bradley
    16.July: NewMoon
    17.July: options-exp.-date
    20.July: Monday after exp. date (very often a turning point)
    Many stock markets made an intraday-Top on 20.July!!

    What will happen till 15th of Aug.??

    HAPPY TRADING

  • Peppinger

    Hi, everybody!
    Sometimes it works: “Sell on newmoon – buy on fullmoon”!
    On 2nd of July we get a fullmoon – and on 1st of July is a “middle term turning point”!
    Maybe the stockmarket will star rising in the next 2 days!
    Good luck!

  • Larrs

    This is fascinating!

    Question – On the Classical version, there seems to be some turn on the 30-June. What do you make of it? it does not appear on any of the bar indicators/graph.

    Thanks,
    Larrs

    • Bradley Siderograph

      Hi Larrs,

      Thanks for sharing your comment. The last significant Middle Terms Turn Date took place on May 24th, which marked a significant low in the Middle Terms. This significant low in the Middle Terms performed very well as a Turn Date indicator. After May 24th, the next significant top in the Middle Terms takes place on July 1st (i.e., the date immediately following the June 30th date you mentioned). Therefore, you have a good point that it could be worth watching for a possible turn around June 30th-July 1st. Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this.

      Thanks,
      Matt

      • Larrs

        Thank you for your prompt response.
        How do you know if the turn date is a top or a bottom?

        For example this next turn date on the 30-June / 1-July is it a top or a bottom?
        Based on recent action I can’t tell – either it already started (top on the 24th of June) or its a bottom (starting 30-June), signalling a mid-term up-movement until next turn on the 16-July.

        • Bradley Siderograph

          Hi Larrs,

          When I’m trying to determine whether a particular Turn Date is going to be a top or a bottom, I typically look to see the trend leading up to the Turn Date. For example, from June 23 through June 30 the S&P 500 was in a significant downtrend. Therefore, I would anticipate that a Turn Date taking place on June 30/July 1 would be more likely to be a bottom than a top. Thanks for your follow up question.

          Matt

  • Peppinger

    Hi, everybody!
    It looks like the low came in 1 day late, on 9th! Shorts are stopped out!
    A rally to the upside is going on!
    Have fun!

    • Bradley Siderograph

      Hi Philip,

      Thanks for your comment. It sounds like you could be referring to a recent Middle Terms Turn Date, which took place on Sunday May 24th. Prior to this Turn Date the S&P 500 was in a strong uptrend. The index increased 2.2% from 2,080 on May 6 to 2,126 on the Friday before this turn date (i.e., May 22). Subsequent to the Turn Date, the S&P 500 proceeded to drop 2.2% back down to 2,080 by June 9th. I would consider this to be a great example of an effective Turn Date. Therefore, to answer your question, Turn Dates that take place on “no-market trading” days could still be interpreted as a point at which we should be on the lookout for a change in trend.

      Thanks,
      Matt

  • Peppinger

    Hello!
    In a bear-market surprise comes to the downside!
    It looks like the “acceleration-version” to the downside!
    Hold your shorts!
    Happy trading!

  • Peppinger

    Hi, Matt – hello everybody!
    Thank you Matt for all your great work!
    To all traders: On 7th June there is a big Bradley in the classic version and there is also on 8th June a 28/100 Bradley!
    Be careful: Either it triggers an acceleration to the downside in the stockmarkets – or, what I believe, it will trigger a strong countertrendrally to the upside!
    Happy trading and good luck!

  • Peppinger

    Hi, everybody!
    Enjoy the nice long weekend – in Europe and USA! The cluster 24th and 25th of May is in position!
    Also watch the divergence in the NYSE-advance-decline-line (daily)!
    Stock markets should go south on Thuesday!
    Good luck!

  • SharleeDog

    Should I understand from these graphs that May 24th – May 25th should be turn dates from which higher prices should be expected?

    • Bradley Siderograph

      Hi Sharlee,

      Thanks for your comment. As you mentioned there is a Middle Terms Turn Date on May 24. Turn Dates represent dates when there could be significant shifts in investors’ psychology regarding the markets, which can lead to a change in trend. If prices have been increasing in the days leading up to the Turn Date, then prices could turn down after the Turn Date, and if prices have been decreasing in the days leading up to the Turn Date, prices could turn up after the Turn Date. The typical interpretation is that for a particular Turn Date, there could be a change in the price trend leading up to the Turn Date. I hope this helped!

      Thanks,
      Matt

  • Scott

    matt, i should have read through the other comments first along with your responses. looks like my questions were already answered. the 100/100 power decilnation along with siderograph could still show their sway next week, but it will be interesting to see the cluster affect.

    we have had much more contained volatility during this cluster as compared to Oct 15-Jan 1 last year. with the 161.8 extension only 18 points away on the sp500 from the 2007 top, i find it hard to believe this market can charge ahead another 80 points without a retest of 2060, 2040, or 2000…. which exactly why it will happen.

  • Scott

    Hello Matt,

    I had anticipated a significant 80-100 point drop in Spy in the period following the 100/100 declination and 31/100 siderograph on May 10. after closing at 2112 on May 8th, the lowest we got was 2083 this week before rallying to all time closing highs today at 2120. w/ a follow up middle term power only 2 weeks later of 53/100 combined with another 31/100 siderograph power, something has got to break!

    in 2014 middle term powers generally kicked off an 60-80 point rally. seems like we have shrunk our trading range from 2000-2100 to 2040-2120 to 2065-2120. with all the bradley turn power in may, I would have expected greater volatility, yet it is almost as if a perfect storm has been contained w/ only 1 big volume day (may 8th)

    any thoughts or historical reference you have with the above combination?

  • george

    matt,
    this coming Friday is option expiration. I noticed many times that if the trend has been up the first 2 weeks of the month the trend continues up into option expiration. I think this is because the various institutions write many put options and want to see them expire worthless and collect the premium. the stockmarket is at all time highs . I was under the impression that if the market trend was up into turn dates (2 on may 10) it would go down there after. what do you think. will they hold the averages up this week?

    • Bradley Siderograph

      Hi George,

      Thanks for sharing your thoughts on the potential impact of option expiration on the trend in a security’s price. As we have seen recently with the LIBOR fixing scandal, it is entirely possible that large institutions could collude to create a certain market effect. The case of the alleged “flash crash” trader Navinder Sarao shows that sometimes it doesn’t even take collusion for significant market manipulation to take place. Therefore, I entirely believe that the market effect you are mentioning could be taking place. Further, I anticipate the effect would be felt more strongly by individual stocks than broad indices, such as the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

      The idea you mentioned intrigued me, so I ran the numbers for the S&P 500 for the last 5 years (i.e., from May 2011 through April 2015. I compared the trend in the S&P 500 for the 5 business days prior to option expiration (i.e., the 3rd Friday of the month) to the trend for the previous 10 trading days. Here are the results:
      Over the last 5 years, 63% of the time the trend for the previous 2 weeks continued during the option expiration week. Therefore, it appears that more than half the time the trend continuation pattern you mentioned took place for the S&P 500. I would anticipate that this percentage could be significantly higher for individual stocks with heavy option activity from institutional investors.

      What you mentioned about Turn Dates is correct. If the market is experiencing an uptrend leading up to a significant Turn Date, we would look to see if the market subsequently experiences a downtrend.

      Thanks for your comment!

      Matt

      • george

        thanks for doing the research matt regarding option expiration week. I am really interested to see how the 100/100 declinations power turn date may 10th might change the option expiration week pattern. maybe there will be a black swan event this week. maybe Greece default? could be fun to watch.

  • James

    Thanks for such precise turn dates. So with may 10 this monday but such a strong reaction today, do you think it came a day early or will we get a peak this monday? What hints do u look for to determine a top or a bottom?

    • Bradley Siderograph

      Hi James,

      Thanks for your question. Here are some metrics I consider when determining tops and bottoms:
      1. Backtesting — how well a certain type of Turn Date has performed in the past can be a good indication of how well it will perform in the future. For example, if there is an upcoming Middle Terms Turn Date with a Power of 50, it could be valuable to go back and see how a particular security reacted to historical Middle Terms Turn Dates with a Power between 40-60.
      2. Bradley Bars Power for the Turn Date — For example, the initial results of my Backtesting indicate that for the DJIA, Middle Terms Turn Dates with a relatively high Power appear to work well.
      3. Steepness of the Turn in the Siderograph — Toward the end of his book, Stock Market Prediction, Donald Bradley wrote, “Already we are convinced that rates of change are of critical importance…comparable in power to actual reversal points.” Therefore, if the Turn Date corresponds with a significant spike up or down in the Siderograph, the Turn Date could be especially strong.
      4. Volume — I look to see if there is increased trade volume around the Turn Date. Higher volume could be indicative of a stronger Turn Date.

      I hope this helped!

      Matt

  • misc

    What do you make of that 2 possibly important turns are so close apart ( May 10 and May 25 ) ?
    Do you favor one over the other for any reason at this point ?

    • Bradley Siderograph

      This is a great question, and I’ve wondered myself what would be the best way to determine which Turn Dates are going to be the strongest. My work is still in progress to come up with a statistically-supported answer. In the meantime, see below for how I am working to answer this type of question.

      I first started by putting together the Bradley Bars, which are intended to mathematically identify more significant Turn Dates. The Bradley Bars are very important because they make it possible to perform backtesting to assess the historical effectiveness of previous Turn Dates.

      So far I have backtested the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) against the historical Turn Dates for the Bradley Siderograph and its three component elements (i.e., the Middle Terms, Long Terms, and Declinations). I chose the DJIA because it has been around for longer than other indices (e.g., the S&P 500), so I was able to backtest more Turn Dates with it.

      The initial backtesting results indicate that from 1900 to the present, for the DJIA the Middle Terms Turn Dates appear to work better than any of the other Turn Dates (e.g., Bradley Siderograph Turn Dates, Declinations Turn Dates, etc.).

      Specfically, for the DJIA the Middle Terms with a high Bradley Bars power appear to be associated with a turn in trend plus or minus 13 calendar days. In other words, for Middle Terms Turn Dates with a relatively high Bradley Bars Power, the trend in the DJIA in the 13 calendar days after the Turn Date is often the opposite of the trend over the previous 13 calendar days. However, to date I have not yet assessed the extent to which clusters of turn dates near each other can impact changes in trend.

      As we saw in the fourth quarter of last year, clearly there have been times where a cluster of significant Turn Dates has been associated with increased market volatility. However, correlation is not the same as causation. Before I would comment on something like this, I would typically want to run the historical numbers and see how multiple turn dates clustered together impacted volatility, if at all. It makes sense to me that a cluster of turn dates could be correlated with increased volatility, but additional research in this area is needed before we can draw a conclusion.

      I hope this helped! If you have any follow up questions please feel free to reach out.

      Thanks,
      Matt

  • Vishal

    Another turn date tmrw Apr 22 and classic version has a turn date on Apr 27 … FOMC in Apr 28-29…
    Usually market like to be at range lows going into FOMC..so they can pop it to range highs…atleast thats
    what happened the last few instances. So either we turn back down tmrw or breakout of this consolidation
    and go to new highs… given the market internals and waning breadth…my gut feeling is we turn back down
    tmrw.. (only price pays..)

  • John Gizzo

    You write that a Top in the Siderograph can mean a Top or a Bottom in the stock market (in the overview section). What i don’t understand is if the uptrend in the Siderograph means positive investor behavior and a down trend means negative (i listened to the formula breakdown video where you explained going up is a positive behavior)… Then why can’t a TOP in the graph correlate to a TOP in the stock Market.. at least thats what i assume??

    • Bradley Siderograph

      Hi John — Your sentiment is correct. Tops in the Siderograph are intended to correlate with Tops in investor sentiment. A good example of this is the last graph in Donald Bradley’s book, Stock Market Prediction. In this graph Donald Bradley shows how for the year 1946 the Dow Jones Industrial Average had a high correlation with the Bradley Siderograph. Upward trends in the DJIA in 1946 were closely assoicated with upward trends in the Siderograph, and downward trends in the DJIA were closely associated with downward trends in the Siderograph.

      However, in addition to this standard interpretation (i.e., that an uptrend in the Siderograph should be associated with an uptrend in investor behavior), alternative uses for the Siderograph have sprung up. One of these is Donald Bradley’s mention of his interest in considering “rates of change” in the Siderograph (e.g., noticing when the Siderograph is increasing or decreasing at a faster or slower rate). In the page following the graph I mentioned above, Donald Bradley wrote, “already we are convinced that rates of changes are of critical importance in such predictive interpretation, comparable to power to the actual reversal points.”

      Looking at “rates of change” in the Siderograph is just one of the alternate interpretations for the siderograph. One of the most popular alternative interpretations of the Siderograph is that one should focus less on the absolute level of the Siderograph and instead focus more on the Turn Dates themselves (i.e., looking for changes in trend around significant Turn Dates).

      To summarize, your interpretation is correct, and the reason you may have seen the opposite of what you expected is because an alternative interpretation of the Siderograph involves a focus more on Turn Dates themselves as compared to the overall upward/downward trend of the Siderograph itself.

      This explanation turned out to be a little longer than expected, so thanks for reading through it to get to this point. Hopefully it helped!

      Thanks,
      Matt

    • Bradley Siderograph

      Thanks for your comment Vishal. The following MIddle Terms Turn Date around the middle of February also worked very well. There were relatively few Turn Dates in the first quarter of this year, so I’m especially excited to see the performance of the many upcoming Turn Dates for 2Q.

      Thanks,
      Matt